Let’s face it, 2023 is going to be a tough year.
The events from last year continue to have knock on effects. Inflation, which was at a record high last year, both in the UK and the US, is now on the decline possibly in response to increased interest rates. But prices are still high and still getting higher, even if the rate at which they are doing so is less than before.
The war in Ukraine is still raging, with a mounting humanitarian toll and a subsequent global impact on everything from energy prices to defence budgets. The climate is an unpredictable mess and will only get less predictable.
All this is coming together to create a perfect storm (quite literally sometimes) of unpleasant consequences. For example, the UK faced fresh food shortages in February because of bad weather in Europe and North Africa. When inflation was running rampant, to keep prices low, UK suppliers opted to source away from UK and Dutch producers who were burdened by excessive energy bills from heated greenhouses. This meant less fresh produce grown in the UK and Netherlands during the winter. But the gamble that didn’t pan out because of freak weather elsewhere.
The Silicon Valley Bank just collapsed, having invested heavily in US government bonds, which lost value as the Fed raised interest rates. Not an issue, if it could have held on to the bonds for a few more years. But unfortunately, most of the bank’s customers, hit by recent woes, were pulling out their deposits to pay bills. The bank had to sell the bonds too early, suffering massive losses. News of this created a run on the bank. Boom. It looks like a subsequent banking crisis has been averted, as this wasn’t the result of Lehman Brothers style risky investing, but the Fed will have to rethink its current plan for interest rates, which will affect inflation.
The world is cautiously watching.